Suchergebnisse

The ECB has announced that when government and corporate bonds come to maturity in the context of its QE-program, new bonds will be bought in the market so as to keep the money stock (money base) unchanged. This creates a "window of opportunities" for the ECB. It could replace the old bonds with new "environmental bonds", i. e. bonds that have been issued to finance environmental projects. In doing so, the ECB would not create new money. Given the existential nature of the degradation of the environment, including climate change, the priority should be to use the ECB's money creation capacity towards the support of environmental investments. This can be done without creating inflation. ; Die EZB hat angekündigt, dass bei Fälligkeit von Staats- und Unternehmensanleihen im Rahmen ihres QE-Programms neue Anleihen am Markt gekauft werden, um die Geldmenge (Geldbasis) unverändert zu halten. Dies schafft ein "Fenster der Möglichkeiten" für die EZB. Sie könnte die alten Anleihen durch neue "Umweltanleihen" ersetzen, d. h. Anleihen, die zur Finanzierung von Umweltprojekten ausgegeben wurden. Auf diese Weise würde die EZB kein neues Geld schaffen. Angesichts der existenziellen Bedrohung durch zunehmende Umweltschäden, zu denen auch der Klimawandel gehört, sollte die Priorität darin bestehen, die Geldschöpfungskapazität der EZB zur Unterstützung von Umweltinvestitionen zu nutzen. Dies kann ohne Inflation erfolgen.

Las elevadas tasas de desempleo que caracterizan a las economías de la Unión Europea son el resultado de una combinación de políticas de demanda restrictiva y de rigideces en el funcionamiento del mercado de trabajo. En la primera parte del artículo se explica cómo las políticas deflacionistas seguidas para lograr la convergencia monetaria están en la raíz de la elevación de las tasas de paro acontecidas durante la recesión de los noventa. En la segunda parte se trata de demostrar cómo las políticas de mantenimiento de renta son la causa fundamental de que en la expansión la tasa de desempleo, especialmente la que afecta a la mano de obra no cualificada, apenas haya descendido, aumentando de esta manera el colectivo de parados de larga duración. ; The high rates of unemployment characterising the economies of the European Union are the result of a combination of restrictive demand policies and rigidities in the labour market. The first part of the article explains how the deflationary policies pursued to achieve monetary convergence lie at the root of the increase in unemployment rates seen during the recession of the 1990s. In the second part the writer attempts to show that policies of income maintenance are the basic reason why, during the upturn of economic activity, there has hardly been any reduction in the unemployment rate, especially in the area of unskilled labour, with an increase in the long-term unemployed

This paper investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination. We compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics. Linear models tend to outperform at short forecast horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are small. In contrast, nonlinear models with more elaborate mean-reverting components dominate at longer horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are large. The results also suggest that combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model.

In this paper, we consider how uncertainty affects the choice between federal monetary policy based on national & union-wide aggregate data under conditions of asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy. We find that the uncertainly about the transmission process sustains (&, in some cases, even reinforces) the need to take into account information about national economies in the formulation of monetary policy. Also the forecasting process matters when uncertainty is additive: in particular, when union-wide forecasting is more accurate than national-based forecasting, this advantage can compensate for the welfare loss from using union-wide aggregation. There is, however, a strong case for using national information in the optimal design of common monetary policy. [Copyright 2006 Elsevier B.V.]